A Further Note on the Age Index of a Population


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Aging of Population

Bulletin of the World Health Organization. The methods of estimation are country-specific, and the quality of each estimation depends on the quality and amount of the information available that each country. In theory, there are as many methods as countries, and because of the variety and complexity of these methods, an overall quality score for the incidence and mortality estimates combined is almost impossible to determine.

A further assessment of the methods has also been described by Antoni et al. The sex- and cancer-specific 1-, 3-, and 5-year prevalence estimates for were computed by multiplying the corresponding estimates for c by the ratios of the estimated number of incident cases in in the adult population to the corresponding estimated number of cases for Int J Cancer.

Estimates of global cancer prevalence for 27 sites in the adult population in Epub Jul Please note that: These estimates are based on the most recent data available to IARC through collaborations with population-based cancer registries the International Association of Cancer Registries and with the World Health Organization, or are based on information publicly available online. Because the data sources are continually improving in terms of the quality and availability of data, changes in methodology are sometimes desirable, and as a result the estimates may not be comparable over time.

Therefore, considerable caution should be exercised when interpreting the current estimates in comparison with those published in previous versions of GLOBOCAN. The Section coordinates the collection, analysis, interpretation, and dissemination of indicators that capture the changing magnitude and profile of cancer by means of three essential and complementary areas of activity: cancer registry support and development estimation and provision of global cancer indicators descriptive epidemiological cancer research.

My settings The settings panel lets you configure your own preferences to improve your navigation. Sort cancer sites by label by ICD Create slides 1 - Here is the list of selected graphics. Fact sheets For a quick access to a summary of the burden of cancer in a country or for a cancer, use the fact sheets pages. Population growth is determined by births and deaths and every country has seen very substantial changes in both: In our overview on how health has changed over the long run you find the data on the dramatic decline of child mortality that has been achieved in all parts of the world.

National Population Projections - Office for National Statistics

And in our coverage of fertility you find the data and research on how modern socio-economic changes — most importantly structural changes to the economy and a rise of the status and opportunities for women — contributed to a very substantial reduction of the number of children that couples have. But declining mortality rates and declining fertility rates alone would not explain why the population increases. If they happened at the same time the growth rate of the population would not change in this transition.

What is crucial here is the timing at which mortality and fertility changes. It is shown in the schematic figure below. It is a beautifully simple model that describes the observed pattern in countries around the world and is one of the great insights of demography.

The changes to birth rates, deaths rates, and population increase that we saw historically and in our lifetimes fit the model of the demographic transition with great regularity. Here is where you find the empirical evidence on the demographic transition on Our World in Data. Empirical evidence for the demographic transition If fertility fell in lockstep with mortality we would not have seen an increase in the population at all.

The demographic transition works through the asynchronous timing of the two fundamental demographic changes: The decline of the death rate is followed by the decline of birth rates. This decline of the death rate followed by a decline of the birth rate is something we observe with great regularity and independent of the culture or religion of the population.

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The chart below presents the empirical evidence for the demographic transition for five very different countries in Europe, Latin America, Africa, and Asia. In all countries we observed the pattern of the demographic transition, first a decline of mortality that starts the population boom and then a decline of fertility which brings the population boom to an end.

The population boom is a temporary event. In the past the size of the population was stagnant because of high mortality, now country after country is moving into a world in which the population is stagnant because of low fertility. In , Anthony Wrigley and Roger Schofield 9 published a major research project analyzing English parish registers—a unique source that allowed them to trace demographic changes for the three centuries prior to state records.


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As far as we know, there is no comparable data for any other country up until the mid-eighteenth century see the following section for Sweden , where recordkeeping began in The chart below shows the birth and death rates in England and Wales over the span of nearly years. As we can see, a growing gap opens up between the birth and death rate after , creating a population explosion.


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Statistics Sweden, the successor of the Tabellverket, publishes data on both deaths and births since recordkeeping began more than years ago. These records suggest that around the year , the Swedish death rate started falling, mainly due to improvements in health and living standards, especially for children.

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Yet while death rates were falling, birth rates remained at a constant pre-modern level until the s. During this period and up until the first half of the 20th century, there was a sustained gap between the frequency of deaths and the frequency of births. It was because of this gap that the Swedish population increased. The following visualization supports these observations. Changes to birth and death rate over time around the world The visualization presents the birth and death rate for all countries of the world over the last 5 decades.

Countries per continent can also be highlighted by hovering and clicking on them in the legend on the right side of the chart. By visualising this change we see how in country after country the death rate fell and the birth rate followed — countries moved to left-hand-side first and then fell to the bottom left corner. Today, different countries straddle different stages of the model. Most developed countries have reached stage four and have low birth and death rates, while developing countries continue to make their way through the stages.

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There are two important relationships that help explain how the level of development of a country affects its population growth rates:. Combining these two relationships, we would expect that as a country develops, population growth rates decline. Generally, this is true. Over the last two decades we have seen declining population growth rates in countries at all stages of development.

In the average woman on the planet had 5 children. The first panel in the chart below shows this fundamental change. The total fertility rate at which a population replaces itself from one generation to the next is called the replacement fertility rate. If no children died before they grew up to have children themselves the replacement fertility rate would be 2. Because some children die , the global replacement fertility rate is currently 2. Why then is global population growth not coming to an end yet? The number of births per woman in the reproductive age bracket is only one of two drivers that matter here.

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The second one is the number of women in the reproductive age bracket. If there were few women in the reproductive age bracket the number of births will be low even when the fertility rate is high. At times when an increasing share of women enter the reproductive age bracket the population can keep growing even if the fertility rate is falling. The second chart in the panel below shows that the population growth over the last decades resulted in increasingly larger cohorts of women in the reproductive age bracket. As a result, the number of births will stay high even as the number of births per woman is falling.

This is what the bottom panel in the chart shows. According to the UN projections, the two drivers will cancel each other out so that the number of births will stay close to the current level for many decades. The number of births is projected to change little over the course of this century. In the middle of the 21st century the number of births is projected to reach a peak at million and then to decline slowly to million births by The coming decades will be very different from the last. How close we are to peak child we looked at in a more detailed post.

Population momentum is one important driver for high population growth. But it of course also matters that all of us today live much longer than our ancestors just a few generations ago. Life expectancy is now twice as long in all world regions. In all of this it is important to keep in mind that these are projections and how the future will actually play out will depend on what we are doing today.

Population momentum is driven by the increasingly large cohorts of women in the reproductive age bracket. And this is when global population growth will come to an end. Hans Rosling explained it better than anyone , with the help of toilet rolls.

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AGING OF POPULATION

At the global level, population changes are determined by the balance of only two variables: the number of people born each year, and the number who die. How large of an impact does migration have on population changes across the world? In the United States we see that since the early s, migration into the USA has exceeded emigration out of the country. This means net migration has been positive, and resulted in a higher population growth rate than would have occurred in the scenario with zero migration. In , for example, the actual population growth rate was 0. With zero migration, this would have been 0.

This is also true for most countries across Europe.

A Further Note on the Age Index of a Population A Further Note on the Age Index of a Population
A Further Note on the Age Index of a Population A Further Note on the Age Index of a Population
A Further Note on the Age Index of a Population A Further Note on the Age Index of a Population
A Further Note on the Age Index of a Population A Further Note on the Age Index of a Population
A Further Note on the Age Index of a Population A Further Note on the Age Index of a Population
A Further Note on the Age Index of a Population A Further Note on the Age Index of a Population

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